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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."