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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.